The 2024 Presidential Election was a prolific moment in history that resulted in a tight race between the Democratic and Republican parties, who have campaigned across the nation throughout the past year. One of the ways that many analysts have determined most outcomes is through the electoral votes of the swing states.
The presidential election process consists of the Electoral College and analysts have determined a metric called the “partisan lean.” Throughout the years, there has been a predetermined winner of the election when the majority of a group of states end up leaning towards one party as opposed to the other and this group was given the name: Swing States. The Battleground States, as the media refers to them.
“A swing voter is one ‘who could go either way: a voter who is not so solidly committed to one candidate or the other as to make all efforts at persuasion futile’.”
– William G. Mayer, Professor of Political Science from Northeastern University.
With the partisan lean, there was a pattern noticed that even if certain states were strongly red or strongly blue, the swing states’ results varied in elections, developing the concept of these swing states who remained wavering until the last minute of ballot counting. The group consisted of 13 during the pre-election 2016 analysis, like Wisconsin, New Hampshire, Minnesota, Virginia, etc.
As for the 2024 race, the following states were determined as the key swing states: Nevada, Arizona, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Georgia. Attaining the electoral votes from these states were absolute priorities for both parties, resulting in a deep focus to win over the voter’s hearts and minds.
“The difference between victory and defeat was a tiny fraction of voters in those states.”
– Zachary B. Wolf & Renee Rigdon, CNN
In the past, these key swing states have voted blue, like in the 2020 Presidential election, when then-Democratic Party Candidate, Joe Biden, managed to swing Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin with a 0.4% to 5% margin.
Out of the seven key states, five have confirmed a triumphant win for the Republican Party’s Presidential Candidate, Donald Trump, with Nevada and Arizona to still be reporting the rounds of ballots although Trump continues to lead.
With about 295 electoral votes, the Associated Press has called the race to be Donald Trump’s victory; a swing-state sweep.
