In the summer of 2025, 70% of the Pacific Northwest experienced a moderate to severe drought, primarily due to a running deficit of low rain years beginning in 2023. However, with the nearly perpetual downpour and severe flooding over most of Western Washington in December of 2025, the state might be headed for its first drought-free summer since 2022.
There are a few key indicators for the likelihood of a drought, the three most important of these being reservoir water levels, soil moisture and snowpack. These are the largest sinks of water in Washington, places to build up reserves in the winter to then expend over a dryer summer.
In an interview with the University of Washington’s Atmospheric Sciences Professor Cliff Mass, he notes that the “precipitation in reservoirs [is] great,” along with great levels of soil moisture—two of the few positive impacts of consecutive atmospheric rivers delivering almost 5 trillion gallons of water in just a week.
The main cause for potential concern is the state of Washington’s snowpack. The atmospheric rivers also brought with them warm air, which stymied the accumulation of snow in the Cascade and Olympic Mountains.
As of January 5, the Washington State Department of Ecology reported the snowpack to be at only 63% of the average at this time of year. Confounding this, snowpack is often the most important factor in determining drought outcomes, and as the Department of Ecology puts it, “there is no substitute for snow. While this might seem discouraging, there is still plenty of time to continue to improve the snowpack.
2026 is a La Niña year, a climate pattern that coincides with increased precipitation and cooler temperatures, perfect conditions for more snowfall. Not all of Washington’s snowpack is underperforming either. The Columbia and North Cascades drainage basins are both above the expected snowpack for this time of year.
Unfortunately, it is too early in the winter to make a definitive call on the likelihood of a drought in Washington’s future. The weather is unpredictable, and the state will need more sustained precipitation to remain without a drought. There is, however, reason to be hopeful that this winter can help break our state’s four-year dry spell.
