The High Stakes and Surprising Outcomes of the MLB Draft

Unsplash // Edoardo Busti
Unsplash // Edoardo Busti

The MLB All-Star Week started last Monday, and with it comes the MLB rookie draft. The first thing to know about the event is that the MLB draft functions very differently compared to those of other sports, where being locked up by a football or basketball means you have a very high chance of seeing at least some professional play. But with the MLB, everything is different, as if it’s a giant lottery where anything can and will go wrong.

You only need to go back to the 2012 draft for a prime example, when pitcher Mark Appel was selected first overall in 2013 by the Houston Astros. He never reached the big leagues and retired before picking it back up–making six appearances for the Philadelphia Phillies in 2022. Conversely, late picks can come around to surpass all expectations. The St. Louis Cardinals, for example, picked inner-circle Hall of Fame first baseman Albert Pujols in the 13th round of the 1999 draft.

The Seattle Mariners went pitcher-heavy for this year’s draft, picking 14 pitchers in their 20 total picks. They also kept it college-heavy, a trend they have stuck with in recent years. The benefit to drafting college players, particularly college pitchers, is that their skills are likely to be more refined and they can expect to debut at the big leagues faster. For example, the Mariners drafted two college players in 2021, Bryce Miller and Bryan Woo, who are already expected to be long-time contributors to the team. This year is a more extreme example, with Seattle drafting just one high-schooler.

The draft was immediately an exciting one, with the Mariners taking switch-pitcher Jurrangelo Cijntje with their first-round pick. The idea of being able to pitch with both arms provides some excellent considerations. For example, with the continued increase in arm injuries among hard-throwing pitchers, Cijntje could alternate which arm he uses in his starts, giving himself effectively double the amount of rest per start with each arm. Furthermore, if he’s injured in one of his arms, he could make an accelerated recovery a la Bryce Harper by throwing with his healthy arm instead. There’s only one player to serve as precedent for a switch-pitcher in the Major Leagues: reliever. He was admittedly a 20th round flyer and didn’t have great career numbers, but the novelty is real.

From there, the picks were:

  • Ryan Sloan, the lone high school pick with first-round talent that had fallen to them at 55th overall. He can throw multiple different fastballs with above-average control, seemingly a necessity in today’s game.
  • Hunter Cranton is the rare draftee who is a reliever out of the gate. He tops out in the triple digits with a fastball that was generating a ton of swing-and-miss. He is set to turn 24 in short order already, but that might be a benefit to avoid overloading his arm too early in his career.
  • Josh Caron, the first non-pitcher of the Mariner draft. He grades out as an average player, with good power potential and the arm to throw out runners, though he could stand to improve on the accuracy.

The next interesting player to be snagged was potential two-way player Grant Knipp, drafted out of Campbell University in North Carolina. He was already a prolific hitter, with a batting average of .314 over his college career though he had improved to over .400 in his most recent season. He picked up pitching during college, posting a 1.59 ERA at Campbell. It is likely he regressed to just a hitter in his pro career, but the prospect of having someone who can both hit and pitch is becoming more tempting for teams since the astonishing journey of Shohei Ohtani.

Outside of Mariner news, seven players from Washington institutions heard their names called:

  • Zach Swanson was the first, a pitcher out of Toutle Lake HS taken in the ninth round by the Detroit Tigers.
  • Cam Clayton, shortstop out of UW, went to the Miami Marlins in the 14th round.
  • The San Francisco Giants drafted pitcher Hunter Dryden out of Whitworth University in the 17th round.
  • Liam Paddack, pitcher out of Gonzaga, went in the 18th to the round to the Chicago White Sox.
  • The New York Mets are the only team to draft two players out of the state, picking up Jase Hampson out of Lynwood HS and Adam Haight out of Cedar Park Christian HS.
  • Finally, the Arizona Diamondbacks drafted Battle Ground HS outfielder Jackson Hotchkiss in the 19th round.

There’s a non-zero chance none of these guys contribute considerably at the Major League level, but it’s no fun to view things in a negative light. Considering how the Mariners organizations have turned weapons out of every pitcher they have laid their hands on, it’s hard to doubt their track record.